There is no shortage of political crises to talk about, including infrastructure, climate, healthcare, the economy and political reform as well as the perennial questions about the nature of government itself. The most serious immediate challenge, however, is the ongoing crisis with our two major political parties. The breakdown of our two-party system is a real possibility and a threat to the nation’s stability.
Writing in the Wall Street Journal, columnist Gerald Seib, (October 5, 2021) identified the problem with the major parties in an article entitled “Why the Political Center has Eroded.” He points out that members of both parties have become estranged from fellow members as well as from the other party. Many of the 435 House districts, for example, are no longer up for grabs in congressional elections but have become safe seats for members who hold extreme views left or right. He quotes the nonpartisan Cook Partisan Voter Index citing that in 1997 there were 164 swing districts and now there are only 78. Presently, the progressive wing of the Democrats has 95 members assured of reelection compared to only 58 swing districts.
The center of both parties has been hollowed out, especially in the case of the Republicans. There is little tolerance for any Republican who happens be a moderate or centrist and certainly few Democrats could be anti-abortion or against gun control. Members of congress represent and are beholden only to their districts. Cooperating with the other side could be fatal to their reelection. Consequently, representatives are less likely to speak to their party or cultivate independents or moderates in the center. This makes compromise difficult both within and between parties.
The two major parties no longer have the need nor the will to come together on issues. As I’ve written before, the two-party system has served us well for a long time because it moderated extremes resulting in centrist solutions. This is not the case today.
The acrimony that led to the attack on the Capitol and subsequent denial of the election results shows how far we have drifted from joining together in the center for the good of the nation. Conservatives and liberals, Democrats and Republicans in the past fought like hell, compromised and later went out for a drink together. Now they hole up only with fellow partisans and seek to destroy the other party.
This breakdown of the two-party system will not only lead to more dysfunction in our government, it might eventually lead to the proliferation of third parties which could result in coalition politics in the European model—the greens, the socialists, neo-fascists, libertarians and possibly even a Christian party given the recent success of the evangelicals. For the first time ever, third parties would become viable alternatives as coalition partners needed to form a majority government. Who knows where that would go.
I do know this. My experience in Central America taught me that the right and left there thrived on keeping the fight going and destroyed the center for their own gains. The result was always disastrous for constitutional government, the prospects of democracy and the man on the street. It could happen here.