The ongoing Russo-Ukraine war is not going to come out okay for the West. Rumors and facts on the ground all point to capitulation to Russian aggression. It appears inevitable given the equivocation and inability of the president to balance reality with a righteous regard for the belligerents. I keep asking myself what Theodore Roosevelt, winner of the Nobel Peace Prize for ending the Russo-Japanese War in 1906, would do, but Trump is no Roosevelt. For sure TR would be tough on Russia whom he distrusted and empathetic with the bravery of the Ukrainians. Roosevelt, unlike Trump, was well-educated and truly understood geopolitics.
Trump is no honest broker; he is a player sympathetic to Russia and more interested in his own domestic agenda than honorable diplomacy. The awful thing is that however the war ends, it will reflect poorly on the United States and contain the seeds of renewed conflict sooner rather than later. It will be worse than Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan together. The Ukraine conflict is the key to future power politics from Europe to China and, perhaps, the Middle East.
American failure over Ukraine will jeopardize Western ideals and encourage virulent disrespect and aggression from Russia, Iran, and China and their proxy clients for the foreseeable future. It may very well invite the unthinkable: China might be tempted to invade Taiwan, Iran might be less cautious about fomenting chaos in the Middle East and Russia most certainly would up its efforts to invade and restore its hegemony in Eastern Europe.
We should all be frightened. Trump’s actions may very well end the war in Ukraine with Russia keeping Crimea and the conquered eastern provinces without any guaranteed security arrangements for Ukraine, let alone promises of NATO membership in the future. Trump will announce success, wallow in “triumph” and immediately seek recognition for a possible Nobel Peace Prize, seconded by Vladimir Putin. His supporters at home will praise his genius and Republicans in Congress will celebrate his success, comparing it to the failures of the Biden administration and American involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan. The irony, though, is that the results are pretty much the same; the difference being that previous administrations failed trying to do the right thing and Trump doesn’t give a damn about the right thing.
Invoking the late Pope Francis, pray for the United States, its allies and all the disenfranchised people of the world.
In the meantime, innocent people keep dying.
Armageddon may be closer than we think.